It's ironic. The moment you say something aloud that might eliminate self-doubt amidst your uncertainty altogether you have an army behind you telling you to "be humble", "don't be cocky", or "you don't know that for sure".
And those are your cheerleaders!
So now, you face an interesting dichotomy on the downside: don't be confident and fail, or be confident and fail. Because you will have to "fail" eventually.
That's it. Those are your two options on the downside should that be the outcome you face, and of course, you'll never know beforehand.
Be confident and it's: "what a loser, he was too cocky".
They love when confident people lose.
Be humble and it's: "what a loser, he needed some moxie"
They won't be kind just because you were humble.
But you have to act. If you wish not to be judged then say nothing, do nothing, and be nothing. That's Aristotle, this shit is as old as the human condition.
When I was young I was outspoken about things I did not understand. Politics, math, you name it, if I had deep questions I asked them.
My teachers and professors didn't like that.
They wanted me to wear a muzzle and shut the fuck up.
- "Why are we treating the process as stationary if it's not?"
- "There isn't a theoretical basis for that map to exist, is there?"
- "You never shared with me the paper you said answered my question..."
There's nothing quite like in person public humiliation, especially as a child.
When I was 16 years old my teacher of 34 years socially crucified me for stating a series of logical consequences he couldn't debate. I was made fun of by an adult, I was the laughing stock of the class.
I said I wouldn't tolerate this type of behavior. I walked out of the classroom and was chased by an adult man in tears knowing his job was on the line.
I requested he apologize to me and returned to my seat. A topic he would then choose to double down on, while the class continued to point and laugh.
But I was a child. At 16 I still melted, I wanted to hide, I never wanted to go to school again. My heart sank every class, jokes in the hallways, the list goes on.
Through all of the noise I kept saying..."I wish I could point to something and show them that, regardless of the outcome, they're wrong."
Well, I'm not a kid anymore, and I know of confidence.
We forget that sometimes, the memory structure of personal experience is quite sticky to use the language of economics. We must continue on, confidently.
It's necessary for me to note...
- Confidence is not unkind
- Confidence is not careless
- Confidence is earned through hard work
Most importantly, confidence is not equivalent to cockiness, not even close.
"Oh, Bill Ackman? That cocky wanna be Buffet? He lost $4B!"
He's not cocky. He's confident. And that's why you'll never stop him.
Cockiness is about bragging, hiding inner insecurity. Confidence is the will to act knowing what structure and performance backs your words. Here's the funny thing about that...literally nobody knows your experience except for you.
That's some serious Voltaire empiricism , but really, how the fuck can the critics know if you're being cocky or confident if they've experience 0% of the path you've walked?
It's your experience that dictates the difference, not their opinion. David Goggins' claiming "They don't know me, son" is precisely this idea.
When it comes to confidence...
What's the difference externally? Not much. Critics don't care.
What's the difference internally? Everything. You feel different.
Cockiness internally produces cognitive dissonance and fear.
Confidence internally produces peace in the unknown performance driven outcome.
This applies to any performance driven uncertainty.
Let's look at a fun example: my Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu competitions...
10/10 times I will defeat a white belt in a fight. There is no uncertainty, and other martial arts practitioners would agree with me.
If I suggest 10/10 times I will defeat an opponent in my rank class, I am met with resistance. There is now uncertainty for all parties involved.
- I don't know about that Roman, he's really big
- Roman, he beat [insert name I don't care about here], I'm not sure
- Don't be cocky, Roman, what if you lose?
That's why I'm fighting and you aren't.
I've done the work. I've put in thousands of training hours. I've fought before. What kind of cornermen are you? You offer no strategy, only fear.
Do you want me to fight scared or like I can't lose? You don't get both.
My cornermen fear organized combat worse than a death sentence.
But what if you lose, Roman?
The second I stop focusing on the experience of taking action and place my desire in the outcome I've lost sight of the entire act.
Which is why I was here in the first place. To try my hardest, and tie my face and name to a performance driven outcome that I care about, confidently.
Roman Paolucci
